A rally .... finally

Before the market opened Citi explained how they were profitable again and boom!! May I say it again BOOM!! Good news the rally started and never ended. The best news is there was no midday swoon. In fact, the last 30 minutes provided an upswing. If you listened to Obama, you would be ahead. Of course, the talking heads pulled the bulls out of the closet today...If said Dow 5000, you are a chump, today. Yesterday, you were prophetic. Cramer was giddy with delight. Ah, yes,we are all Bulls, today.

I am happy.This is a good start. Let's hope the other financial institutions agree. Until then,great day...afterwards..the light may be at the end of tunnel.This time it won't be a train.

Another down day...with some laughs

When I started this blog on the downward spiral in the stock market, I doubted I could keep up but sometimes you simply cannot make up this stuff...so here are the headlines in Yahoo Finance!! today... the day opened with Meck offering to buy out Schering Plough for $41billion,

The market opened lower

Market opens lower after Merck Schering Plough deal ( Is the author suggesting some connection).

An one hour laterm the market is up

Market turns positive on Merck Schering Plough deal ( The author explains how the the deal is good news.

Next..the market is about even:

Market is choppy on Merck Deal ( Uh?)

Market dives

Market falls on Investor uncertainty ( Finally,he gets it. There is no tie between the Merck deal and the market. The market is trading on fear, not fundamentals. Nothing happened during the to cause a 200 point spread, ending in negative territory.)

In a normal market a big deal would be greeted with a minor rally. As the market approaches 6000, the "experts" are calling for 5000. What else is new. Enough for today.

Roller Coaster Ride

The day ended up, imagine that and close to the Obama bottom.

Cramer took his shot at the Obama bottom not holding. Well, at least Obama and moi are willing to stick with it.We may be off 5% but we are willing to have our name associated with it. Cramer will call several bottoms and remind us how he was right. A broken clock is right twice a day.

I thought the high unemployment right would drive the market down. Instead it opened higher...a rally... well then for no reason that I could tell the market dove. The rally scared the market. It was upredictable. For another unknown reason, the market ended on a rally. Based on what? The question is what happened in one day that would cause the market to change in value by 6%..the answer..rumors, fear...nothing logical.

I cannot wait for the day when the markets are boring again. After all the important news, earnings, economic reports and the like are in before the opening bell. It is the only way to have orderly markets. By 10:30, the day used to be over. there would be some selling by the end of the day. The void during the day is filled with unsubstantiated rumors, remrks by the economic gurus and CNBC blathering away joined by the FOX business channel. Imagine if the markets behaved more orderly, traded on real data. They would have no ratings..so they have to move the markets.

Perhaps the most prophetic comment was the market will lag the recovery. I can live with that. Anything the market does between now and April is noise.Earnings season is around the corner. The reports will arrive. I expect good news, better profits. They will no doubt be discounted by the markets. Eventually, fundamentals have to mean something, again.

Today, oh the pessimism

So much for the Obama bottom. Yet,I remain optimistic. There was good news today...better then expected retail sales, WalMart reported more than 5% increase year ever year comp sales. Other retailers who reported lower sales were better than expected. The ECB and England cut interest rates by 0.5%. Factory orders were better than expected. Even jobless claims were better than expected.We are not talking great times but there is a trend. So, even though the Obama bottom did not hold I will stay with it.

So,why then a 4% drop? Citi group dropped to $1.00 or less.GMmay go well go bankrupt.This is old news. The words being used are "concern","worry" and "fear". The leaders of industry are no longer leading. The masters of the universe are slaves to rumors. The groupthink has decided better to ignore all the good news and follow the rumors. Aren't business people supposed to be hard edged nuber crunchers not rumor mongerers. Maybe John Stewart had it right last night skewering CNBC. Worth finding it onloine if you have not seen it.

There was one other concern. The Chinese stimulus may not be enough. Any day that goesby without the government,US or somebody else's doesn't throw in more money, the market tanks. Of course,when they do,the choruses of Socialism start. Obama should stick with his plans.He has them. Wall Street is absolutely out of ideas, no leadership.

Cramer:

He went ballistic tonight blaming Obama for the fall.Yesterday,he was calling for the rally. He shouldjoin leagues with Rush Limbaugh,his new BFF. The way to deflect how terribly wrong you are is place the blame elsewhere.

Laura Rowley:

Excellent piecee on Yahoo Finace, today....where is allthe AIG money going? CDS insurance is being paid. Who is receiving the money (our bailout money).

CNBC:

They simply cannot find enough people who are negative enough. 5000,anyone,4,000 and 3,000. Stop falling all over yourselves. Don't get me wrong I am astrong proponent of capitalism and I certainly do not agreee with the popular position that Obama is a socialist. Perhaps another day.

BUY

Today in the market

After losing about 50% of my investments, I decided to begin blogging as a way to vent and rant. Before I begin my rant, I am calling the market bottom. Actually, I am calling it the Obama bottom. He called it yesterday. The bull market is here. Indeed, the socialist,wealth destroyer has called the bottom and if you listened you would be up 2% in one day. Mr. Cool explained how the P/E ratios were attractive, now. He is doing better than Cramer. The only advice he provides is buy and sell looking into a rear view mirror.

Groupthink defeated

The big news today was not the Chinese stimulus package...why is is a great idea when China does it but a disaster when we do it here? Maybe, the market mavens have it all wrong. Obama launched his program to save homes. More on that later. Groupthink..yes.. every market commentator has gone very negative. Why? They hate being wrong and most of them have been throughout this cycle. A few have remained optimistic, Kudlow and Kass, to name my favorites. Today, their collective gloom began to take a back seat. "We are all bulls now."Even the apopletic Cramer is calling this a rally..after calling the market toxic. It is Wednesday and there is still Thursday and Friday...to change.

Today the President released his plan to prevent foreclosures. The plan is well thought out and targets homes and owners that can and willbe saved. The market will love it. (For now,they can't say so.) Kudoes to Donny Deutsch, for shutting up motor mouth Michele Caruso Cabrera. No sooner than the plan is announced does chirpy begin finding fault, speaking over the reporter discussing the plan. Donny explained it is a plan... it is not perfect. It does not save everyone. It should not.Michele is more concerned that it does not save investor property. She's right. Investors ought not be saved. Maybe next time.

Frankly, I have had some problems with the administration's programs. They are becoming more aggressive and getting out the message. Confidence will be restored. The Obama bottom......

The rally was very good despite the sell off in the last hour. It had to happen. Too much optimism.....well...we can't have that.

Mortgage Holiday

I am taking a Mortgage Holiday. I have been making mortgage paymennts for about twenty years, now. Every month, the mortage company is paid in full. They can count on my check. I have the money, don't get me wrong. I am just tired of being a sap.

I just read where the government is going to work with banks to help "serious" homeowners who got caught in the subprime mess pay or extend their mortgage. In some cases, those stuck with A.R.M.'s will be allowed to extend their payments under the lower interest rate. So, rather being a sap, I am gong to stop my mortgage payments. Why not? Apparently, if you are irresponsible the government will help you. Who knows after missing a few payments, the mortgage company may offer me a lower rate. Why not? I am a very good risk.

Let's get a few things straight, the government has no business getting involved. Once they do, people who do not deserve a break will get it. That is not the government's responsibility. We do not need a means test for subprime mortgage. The lending companies and borrowers are perfectly capable of handling the individual cases. If a subprime lender goes under, so be it. The markets are very efficient. The strong borrowers will continue to hold on to their homes. Someone who has a zero down loan is paying rent.

Meanwhile, I am planning my morgage holiday.If you are like me, don't be a sap, take a mortgage holiday. I cannot think of a better way to send a message to the banks and government.

Good Neighbors...more

I did promise I would writ more about being good naighbors..you have to read the first blog. There, I discussed the US proximate neighbors, Mexico and Canada. Canada is a very good neighbor and Mexico is well a bit of a problem neighbor.

The world is a smaller place, now, globalization, air travel, even the internet. What does that mean? It means we can visit our global neighbors without leaving out living room or in my case, my easy chair. True we get to spy on the global neighborhoods without going there. It is fun, really. But let's pretend for a moment we are restless and want to see if there is better neighborhood. A good neghbor is one you can trust to have over for coffe, chat and not worry about your silverware being stolen. With that in mind, let;s load up the car and take sdrive through the global neighborhoods.

Central America:

I know you want to visit the nicer neighborhoods..but I am driving so we leave our lovely NAFTA neighborhood and drive to the closest neighborhood....so let's wave to Mexico and visit Central America. Alright, we are not getting out of the car. The neigborhood is a mess. The kids are noisy. Each neighbor is ready to pick a fight with his neighbor. Nicauaraga is ready to get into with it El Salvador. Gualtalema is a broken home.,,,ready for a divorce and Panama, well forget it. Then, as we are about to leave we see Costa Rica..the front yard looks great. The kids are neatly dressed. We stop to chat for a while.

Invite them over for coffee, you have to be careful with the silverware, linens and well lock the pantry. Lesson...suddenly you understand Mexico and thankful they are there to keep out these nighbors..ok we will not complain so much about Mexico.

South America

We continue south and wecome upon South America. This neighborhood is a patchwork of large opulent homes. Problem is Brazil and Argentina, among other can't pay their mortgage or taxes. Columbia and Peru are disasters and the Venezuela house has a strict father. Our initial impression is well it is nicer than Central America but not much nicer. We drive around more and suddenly we come on Chile...a nice house and we stop and chat. The house is busy...the kids are clean. We actually sit down and have a coffee. It is obvious they hate the neighborhood, In fact they keep asking if they can be part of our neighborhood (NAFTA). We say why not, the coffee is great. Their big secret is a huge fence to protect them from the rest of the neighborhood,,,the Andes Mountains. They say it works,,,,we nod in agreement.

So would we have the rest of South America over for coffee. I guess we would, well everyone except Venezuela and maybe Columbia or Peru. The silverware is safe. In all likelihood they will insist on bringing wine and dessert and you know iti s going to be a long night.

Europe

Ah, the EC, this has to be good. It is. The neighborhood is pristine. You drive around. The people are friendly and remind you so much of the folks back home. Evertone invites you over the coffee. You like it here but you do notice the houses are close together and everyone os on the front porch. So you stop, everywhere for coffee. They ta;l all about themselves ask you questions.... after a while and another glass of wine, it starts. The French tell you secrets about the Germans. The Germans tell you the Italians do not have a very nice house. England tells you can't trust Germany...your head is spinning. Let's face it this a great neighborhood but really we need more space between each other.... also, you know they are talking about us behind your back.

So, yes we would have coffee...but you have to be sure to have coffee with everyone and not to offend anyone,,,and if you invite France, be sure you invite Germany or they will be upset at you. You will not have to worry about the silverware..well some may decide to bring over their own silverware....and don't be surprised if they drop in unannounced...

the rest for another blog